Ohio is the reigning bellwether in presidential politics, having voted for the winner every time since 1964. And in many ways, the Buckeye State is a microcosm of the country.
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gestures during a campaign stop at K's Hamburger Shop on Sunday, June 17, in Troy, Ohio.
Evan Vucci/AP
EnlargeAsk Steve Ingersol, a 30-something waiter at Applebee?s near Akron, Ohio, how he?s going to vote in November, and he shrugs.
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?No matter who the president is, it?s just someone to blame stuff on,? says Mr. Ingersol, a registered Republican who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 because he thought it would be ?cool? to have a black president. This time, he says, his vote is a coin toss.
Ingersol doesn?t know it, but he?s a hot commodity in Ohio, part of a key demographic ? the white working class ? in what could be the decisive state of the 2012 race. If the upper Midwest, from Iowa to Pennsylvania, is the premier battleground region of the country, then Ohio is ground zero. While Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania lean Democratic, Ohio and Iowa are tossups. And with 18 electoral votes (to Iowa?s six), Ohio has more power to swing the outcome.
Chances are, between now and Nov. 6, Ingersol will hear plenty more about his choices. The TV airwaves are already crackling with political ads. The local Portage County Tea Party is armed with voter lists for door-to-door canvassing and phone calls. The unions, too, are revving up. And both the Obama and Romney teams are on track to set up more campaign offices around Ohio than did any previous nominees.
For Mr. Obama, winning Ohio isn?t essential to reaching 270 electoral votes. But it is for Mitt Romney. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying Ohio.
Last week alone, Obama, Mr. Romney, and Vice President Joe Biden all made campaign appearances in Ohio. First lady Michelle Obama heads to Columbus and Dayton on Tuesday.
And it comes as no surprise that three of Romney?s top campaign surrogates and potential running mates are from the upper Midwest ? starting with Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, a former George W. Bush budget director. The others are Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
?[Senator Portman] is worth three to five points in Ohio,? says Ohio GOP chairman Bob Bennett, who has been talking up his state?s junior senator with Romney. ?Independents like Portman. And Democrats don?t get mad at him.?
Where every vote matters
Rare is the running mate who can swing a state, but in a battleground as tight as Ohio, every vote matters. Four years ago, Obama won the state by just 4.6 percentage points, even as he was winning Wisconsin by 14 points and Michigan by 16. This year, his margins are down everywhere.
And with most voters already in one or the other camp, ?Ohio will be decided by 5 to 8 percent of its electorate,? says Rex Elsass, one of the top GOP admen in the United States, based near Columbus, Ohio.
Which brings us back to Ingersol, the Applebee?s waiter. In some ways, he?s the quintessential white working-class voter ? a tough demographic for Obama in 2008 and even more so now. Ingersol is a single dad with no health insurance. But he?s so busy with work and family that the new health-care law is barely on his radar. And it may not be enough to bring him back to Obama.
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